Cloud optical thickness and liquid water path – does the <i>k</i> coefficient vary with droplet concentration?

Cloud radiative transfer calculations in general circulation models involve a link between cloud microphysical and optical properties. Indeed, the liquid water content expresses as a function of the mean volume droplet radius, while the light extinction is a function of their mean surface radius. There is a small difference between these two parameters because of the droplet spectrum width. This issue has been addressed by introducing an empirical multiplying correction factor to the droplet concentration. Analysis of in situ sampled data, however, revealed that the correction factor decreases when the concentration increases, hence partially mitigating the aerosol indirect effect. <br><br> Five field experiments are reanalyzed here, in which standard and upgraded versions of the droplet spectrometer were used to document shallow cumulus and stratocumulus topped boundary layers. They suggest that the standard probe noticeably underestimates the correction factor compared to the upgraded versions. The analysis is further refined to demonstrate that the value of the correction factor derived by averaging values calculated locally along the flight path overestimates the value derived from liquid water path and optical thickness of a cloudy column, and that there is no detectable relationship between the correction factor and the droplet concentration. It is also shown that the droplet concentration dilution by entrainment-mixing after CCN activation is significantly stronger in shallow cumuli than in stratocumulus layers. These various effects are finally combined to produce the today best estimate of the correction factor to use in general circulation models

On the temporal stability of the coda of ambient noise correlations

We analyze the sensitivity of cross correlations to the anisotropy of the incident field in the context of seismic ambient noise monitoring of small velocity changes. Numerical simulations of elastic waves are performed in a 2D scattering plate with a focus on the comparative character of the direct and coda waves in the cross-correlation. We show that coda waves reconstructed from cross-correlations are far more robust than direct waves in the presence of azimuthal anisotropy of the incident field. We observe similar behavior with real data recorded on Erebus volcano, where a database of impulsive icequakes is used to simulate an anisotropic source field. We propose a simplified approach to evaluate the sensitivity of scattered waves to the anisotropy of the incoming noise field. We rely on previous results obtained for direct waves and on intrinsic properties of scattered waves to predict the errors produced by strong source anisotropy with numerical experiments. These results also yield realistic values for monitoring the accuracy to be expected with real data at crustal scales. Our analysis shows that high-precision noise-based monitoring could be performed with coda waves in the correlation functions, even in the presence of variations in the azimuthal distribution of the ambient noise field

Passive monitoring of anisotropy change associated with the Parkfield 2004 earthquake

International audienceWe investigate temporal variations in the polarization of surface waves determined using ambient seismic noise cross-correlations between station pairs at the time of the Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake of September 28, 2004. We use data recorded by the High Resolution Seismic Network's 3-component seismometers located along the San Andreas Fault. Our results show strong variations in azimuthal surface wave polarizations, Psi, for the paths containing station VARB, one of the closest stations to the San Andreas Fault, synchronous with the Parkfield earthquake. Concerning the other station pair, only smooth temporal variations of Y are observed. Two principal contributions to these changes in Y are identified and separated. They are: (1) slow and weak variations due to seasonal changes in the incident direction of seismic noise; and (2) strong and rapid rotations synchronous with the Parkfield earthquake for paths containing station VARB. Strong shifts in Y are interpreted in terms of changes in crack-induced anisotropy due to the co-seismic rotation of the stress field. Because these changes are only observed on paths containing station VARB, the anisotropic layer responsible for the changes is most likely localized around VARB in the shallow crust. These results suggest that the polarization of surface waves may be very sensitive to changes in the orientations of distributed cracks and that implementation of our technique on a routine basis may prove useful for monitoring stress changes deep within seismogenic zones. Citation: Durand, S., J. P. Montagner, P. Roux, F. Brenguier, R. M. Nadeau, and Y. Ricard (2011), Passive monitoring of anisotropy change associated with the Parkfield 2004 earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13303, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047875

The Impatient May Use Limited Optimism to Minimize Regret

Discounted-sum games provide a formal model for the study of reinforcement learning, where the agent is enticed to get rewards early since later rewards are discounted. When the agent interacts with the environment, she may regret her actions, realizing that a previous choice was suboptimal given the behavior of the environment. The main contribution of this paper is a PSPACE algorithm for computing the minimum possible regret of a given game. To this end, several results of independent interest are shown. (1) We identify a class of regret-minimizing and admissible strategies that first assume that the environment is collaborating, then assume it is adversarial---the precise timing of the switch is key here. (2) Disregarding the computational cost of numerical analysis, we provide an NP algorithm that checks that the regret entailed by a given time-switching strategy exceeds a given value. (3) We show that determining whether a strategy minimizes regret is decidable in PSPACE

Structural Synthesis for GXW Specifications

We define the GXW fragment of linear temporal logic (LTL) as the basis for synthesizing embedded control software for safety-critical applications. Since GXW includes the use of a weak-until operator we are able to specify a number of diverse programmable logic control (PLC) problems, which we have compiled from industrial training sets. For GXW controller specifications, we develop a novel approach for synthesizing a set of synchronously communicating actor-based controllers. This synthesis algorithm proceeds by means of recursing over the structure of GXW specifications, and generates a set of dedicated and synchronously communicating sub-controllers according to the formula structure. In a subsequent step, 2QBF constraint solving identifies and tries to resolve potential conflicts between individual GXW specifications. This structural approach to GXW synthesis supports traceability between requirements and the generated control code as mandated by certification regimes for safety-critical software. Synthesis for GXW specifications is in PSPACE compared to 2EXPTIME-completeness of full-fledged LTL synthesis. Indeed our experimental results suggest that GXW synthesis scales well to industrial-sized control synthesis problems with 20 input and output ports and beyond.Comment: The long (including appendix) version being reviewed by CAV'16 program committee. Compared to the submitted version, one author (out of her wish) is moved to the Acknowledgement. (v2) Corrected typos. (v3) Add an additional remark over environment assumption and easy corner case

Toward Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using Seismic Noise

During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to measure relative seismic velocity variations of less than 0.1 % with a temporal resolution of one day. Our results show that five studied volcanic eruptions were preceded by clearly detectable seismic velocity decreases within the zone of magma injection. These precursors reflect the edifice dilatation induced by magma pressurization and can be useful indicators to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions.Comment: Supplementary information: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguier_SI.pdf Supplementary video: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguierMovieVolcano.av

Decrease in Seismic Velocity Observed Prior to the 2018 Eruption of Kīlauea Volcano With Ambient Seismic Noise Interferometry

The 2018 Kīlauea eruption was a complex event that included deformation and eruption at the summit and along the East Rift Zone. We use ambient seismic noise interferometry to measure time‐lapse changes in seismic velocity of the volcanic edifice prior to the lower East Rift Zone eruption. Our results show that seismic velocities increase in relation to gradual inflation of the edifice between 1 March and 20 April. In the 10 days prior to the 3rd of May eruption onset, a rapid seismic velocity decrease occurs even though the summit is still inflating. We confirm that intereruptive velocity change is correlated with surface deformation, while the velocity decrease prior to eruption is likely due to accumulating damage induced by the pressure exerted by the magma reservoir on the edifice. The accumulating damage and subsequent decrease in bulk edifice strength may have facilitated increased transport of magma from the summit reservoir to the Middle East Rift Zone

Ambient Seismic Noise Image of the Structurally Controlled Heat and Fluid Feeder Pathway at Campi Flegrei Caldera

The TIDES-COST Action (STSM-ES1401-34011) provided a travel grant to framework the research project. The Japan Society for the Promotion of Science - Short-Term Fellowship (JSPS/OF215/022) financed the work, undertaken at Tohoku University and concluded at the University of Aberdeen. We thank Giuseppe Vilardo and Eliana Bellucci Sessa for providing the geomorphological maps, and Simona Petrosino and Paola Cusano for the P- and S-wave pickings used to localise the seismicity. Informal revisions from Guido Ventura, Nick Rawlinson and Chris Kilburn helped us improving the analyses and interpretation, respectively. We acknowledge the help of Naveed Khan in parallelising the codes and two anonymous reviewers who improved the analysis, interpretation, and readibility with their comments. All data to reproduce the maps can be downloaded from the World Data Center PANGAEA data repository, permanent link https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.890238.Peer reviewedPublisher PD